Finding Hurricane Intensity

   By Alex House

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  Photo Credit by Alex House

 

 

NARRAGANSETT, R.I._Professor Isaac Ginis, a respected authority on the study of oceans and hurricanes estimates that millions of dollars could be saved if the storms’ intensity can be measured by new computer models. The costs for preparing a shoreline for impact could then be adjusted accordingly.

               

Dr. Ginis, a professor at the University of Rhode Island Narragansett Bay Campus, has dedicated his career to studying how these complex wind storms. Through his research Ginis has helped contribute to many groundbreaking advances in the field. The movements of hurricanes can now accurately be tracked which allow people more than enough time to make evacuation plans.

              

 Today hurricane forecasts have expanded so that people have a week to make arrangements for the oncoming winds. Naval bases can have up to ten days to respond. The improvements have already saved millions of dollars and lives by informing people when the hurricane will hit, but there is still a great level of uncertainty of how powerful the storms will be.

 

The current goal of Ginis and most hurricane experts is to predict the intensity. The result could have a positive impact on the nation’s economy.

               

“It costs between $500,000 and $1,000,000 per square mile to prepare for a hurricane,” Ginis said.

 

There are 90 Tropical cyclones that occur every year in the world. Businesses lose money when they have to shut down for impending hurricanes. Manpower could be saved if evacuation centers had a sense of how big the storm would be. Pinpointing a hurricane’s intensity could prevent business interruption or unnecessary evacuation costs. Roads would also not be clogged with frenzied residents. 

             

 According to Ginis, however, predicting intensity is not yet possible, which makes the potential financial savings only hypothetical for now. The current technology that scientists like Ginis are using is not yet equipped to determine a hurricane’s intensity.

 

 “It is our most difficult problem,” Ginis said.

 

Predicting the storm’s strength requires scientists to take a closer look at the ocean. Warm water temperatures lead to an increase in the amount of energy that fuel the hurricane’s power. The solution according to Ginis is to determine the temperature of the water which would tell scientists how impactful the storm will be. Understanding what the solution appears to be easy, but actually finding one has proved to be difficult for Ginis.

 

The equations needed to find intensity are still so complex that the equations needed to forecast the storm must be calculated on something Dr. Ginis calls a “supercomputer” instead of a regular lap top. The equations once solved are able to describe the power of the winds.